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Your weekly intelligence on EVs and Transportation Decarbonization
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As the electric vehicle industry nears the end of a challenging year, major uncertainty around the future availability of federal programs and incentives has continued in the wake of U.S. election.


Killing the $7,500 electric vehicle credit could lead to a 27% reduction in EV demand, two Duke University experts have estimated. They project the incentive’s elimination would drive an increase in gas consumption of 7 billion gallons over 10 years. 


Even with the incentives in place, major automakers have taken significant losses on EV sales in recent years. The companies have placed billion-dollar bets on the long-term trend towards EVs, but most major manufacturers have not yet turned a profit on these investments. 


Ford announced a staggering $3.7 billion loss from its EV business through the first three quarters of this year, with annual EV losses on track for about $5 billion. Ford executives cited industry-wide cost pressures, which it projects to continue into 2026. 


Ford, General Motors and Stellantis are lobbying to keep the Biden administration’s vehicle tailpipe emissions and fuel economy regulations largely in place, in part because of the significant investments the companies have already made to meet these standards. The Alliance for Automotive Innovation, a major trade group for the auto industry, advocated in a recent letter to President-elect Donald Trump for “stability and predictability in auto-related emissions standards.” 


In international news, S&P Global has decreased its projection for Chinese-made car imports to the European Union in the wake of the EU’s imposition of new tariffs on Chinese EVs. This could drive an overall decrease in EV adoption in the region, S&P said. It still projects Chinese car imports to the EU to increase through 2027. 


Meanwhile, Elon Musk has developed a close relationship with top political leaders in China, where Tesla has its largest single factory. Tesla has received tax breaks and favorable loans from Chinese banks and is currently building a $200 million factory in Shanghai. 


While Trump has leaned heavily into the idea of new tariffs, Musk has been critical of high tariffs on Chinese EVs. Musk’s close relationship with Trump could enable the company to seek carveouts from the tariffs or could have an overall tempering effect on the EV tariffs that a second Trump administration pursues, The Guardian reports


In aviation news, the airline industry is beginning to come to terms with the massive investments that decarbonization will require. The International Air Transport Association has estimated it will cost $4.7 trillion to build the biorefineries needed to produce enough sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to reach net-zero emissions. However, BP and Shell have both recently scaled back their plans for SAF production. 


We’ll be taking a break for the Thanksgiving holiday and be back on Dec. 9. Until then, read on for this week’s Intelligence Report: 


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Aircraft
Electric Vehicles
Heavy-duty Vehicles
Medium-duty Vehicles
Shipping
Trains
Transportation Decarbonization

 
 

Aircraft

International

Sustainable aviation fuel is taking off. What is it, exactly?

Aviation experts say SAF is the "only viable option" for curbing emissions from flying in the near term. Here's what you need to know about these three letters. Canary Media


International

Why Airlines Are Sounding Alarm On Carbon Net-Zero Transition Costs

To reach net zero by 2050, the annual average capital expenditure required to build the 5,000-7,000 biorefineries that will be needed over the 30-year period is about $128 billion per year. Aviation Week


U.S.

Federal Agencies Announce New Sustainable Aviation Fuel Implementation Framework to Reduce Aviation Carbon Emissions

It Identifies Key Opportunities to Increase Biofuel Production To Deliver Economic Opportunities and Healthier Communities to Rural and Agricultural Areas Across America. U.S. Department of Energy


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Electric Vehicles

California

The plan for Irvine EV maker Rivian to emerge from its 'awkward teenage years'

The company is wrestling with supply chain woes, consumers wary about spending and, now, potential changes in EV policy under a second Donald Trump administration. Los Angeles Times


Colorado

Xcel Energy slams the brakes on its EV discounts, frustrating low-income car buyers

Colorado drivers hoping Xcel Energy will help pay for an electric car are officially out of luck. This month, Colorado's largest utility announced it had officially run out of funding for its EV rebate program, which offered income-qualified customers $5,500 off a new EV or $3,000 off a used model. Colorado Public Radio


International

A new generation of cheaper batteries is sweeping the EV industry

A form of lithium-ion battery called LFP is becoming increasingly popular among automakers due to its advantages on cost, safety, and materials. Grist


International

Are Electric Vehicles Better or Worse for the Environment?

To better understand, we'll examine how each type of vehicle is made, what it produces during its lifecycle, and even how it's treated at the end of its life. Yahoo


International

Donut Lab develops modular electric vehicle development platform

Donut Lab has developed an entirely new approach to building electric vehicles, offering manufacturers a library of inter-compatible components that can be used to produce new electric vehicles such as supercars, buses, drones or SUVs in record time. Renewable Energy Magazine


International

EU to demand technology transfers from Chinese companies

Brussels is planning to force Chinese companies to transfer intellectual property to European businesses in return for EU subsidies as part of a tougher trade regime for clean technologies. The Financial Times


International

Fuel for Thought: How EU Tariffs Will Impact the Battery Electric Vehicle Market

Following in the footsteps of the U.S., Canada and other markets, the EU imposed countervailing duties on battery electric passenger cars imported from China. This decision follows a 13-month European Commission anti-subsidy investigation, which found that the battery electric vehicle value chain in China "benefits from unfair subsidization which is causing threat of economic injury to EU producers of BEVs." S&P Global


International

Nio Sales Fall Short as China EV Price War Weighs on Revenue

Nio reported revenue that missed estimates as the Chinese premium electric-car maker continues to weather a bruising price war in its home country. Bloomberg


International

Northvolt sells its California plant to Lyten to refocus on European operations amid financial challenges

As part of this reorganization, Northvolt's research and development activities on lithium-metal, previously conducted in California, will be relocated to Sweden. Energynews


International

Northvolt, Europe's Hope for a Battery Champion, Files for Bankruptcy

The company's woes are symptomatic of a wider malaise among companies that make batteries for electric vehicles. The New York Times


International

Tesla's path in China clears as Musk courts both Trump and Xi

Billionaire CEO is well connected in the U.S. and China, something that could smooth the road ahead for the electric vehicle maker amid a looming tariff war. The Guardian


International

To see the cars of the future, look at China's electric vehicles

With their surprising and innovative features, they are streets ahead. The Economist


Maryland

Prince George's County mandates EV charging stations in new construction projects

Electric vehicles aren't going anywhere, so officials within the Prince George's County Council passed two bills requiring all new construction projects in the county to include electric charging stations. WJLA


Michigan

Trump's 'EV Mandate' Message May Have Helped Him Win Michigan

The president-elect frequently warned Michigan voters that electric cars would ruin the auto industry. Polls suggest that message helped sway public opinion. Inside Climate News


U.S.

AAA Rebrands 'Gas Prices' As 'Fuel Prices' By Adding EV Charging Rates

AAA is adding electric vehicle charging data to its new "Fuel Prices" website as an addition to providing the nation's leading gasoline price information. With nearly 2 million members living in households with one or more electric vehicles, AAA recognizes the need to track the average kilowatt-per-hour cost for all levels of public charging by state. AAA


U.S.

As EV interest wanes, automakers bet bigger models are the answer

Electric automakers are rolling out several 3-row, family-hauling electric SUVs at the Los Angeles Auto Show because they're hoping the big thing holding people back from buying EVs is that they're not freaking big enough. Axios


U.S.

Automakers to Trump: Please Require Us to Sell Electric Vehicles

Donald J. Trump promised to erase Biden tailpipe rules that are designed to get carmakers to produce E.V.s. But Detroit wants to keep them. The New York Times


U.S.

Despite slowing sales, automakers are expanding electric vehicle models, including family haulers

Through September, U.S. new EV sales were up 7.2% to about 936,000, according to Motorintelligence.com. That's slower growth than the 47% increase in 2023. The Hill


U.S.

Granholm Warns That Cutting EV Tax Credits Would Be 'Ceding' To China

On the campaign trail, Trump did not say whether he would want to cut the tax credit of up to $7,500 for consumers who buy the climate-friendly automobiles. The Hill


U.S.

State EV mandates touch off panic among automakers

In many states. they would need to double or triple their EV sales in just one year -- an unrealistic goal given the average $57,000 price of an EV and the lack of charging infrastructure, companies tell Axios. Axios


U.S.

Stellantis delays Ram electric pickup truck until 2025

Stellantis is delaying the launch of its Ram all-electric pickup truck from this year until the first half of 2025. CEO Carlos Tavares declined to disclose specifics regarding what caused the delays, as well as specific timing on the electric trucks. CNBC


U.S.

Tesla Has Been Slow to Make Its Chargers Accessible to Other EVs

Huge swathes of the country are still off the Tesla charging map, with nary a retrofitted Supercharger in site for more than half of all states. BNN Bloomberg


U.S.

The Clock Is Ticking for Cheap EV Leases After Trump's Win

With changes to federal tax credits on the horizon, now might be the best time to get a good deal on an electric car. Bloomberg


U.S.

The market speaks -- against electric vehicles

Ford lost $3.7 billion on its EV sales in the first nine months of 2024. Mackinac Center for Public Policy


U.S.

US Electric Vehicle Demand Seen Plunging 27% Without Tax Credit

Eliminating the U.S. electric vehicle tax credit would dent future EV demand -- perhaps by more than a fourth -- while providing a trivial boost to gasoline consumption, economists estimate. Bloomberg


U.S.

Volkswagen's hopes of a US comeback shaken by Donald Trump's re-election

Volkswagen's high-stakes bid to woo U.S. consumers with its electric vehicles in a slowing market was a risky endeavor from the start. But with Donald Trump's return to the White House, the American dream of Europe's largest carmaker is looking more fraught than ever. The Financial Times


U.S.

What to Know About the Fate of the EV Tax Credit

President-elect Donald J. Trump wants Congress to repeal a $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit. Doing so would hurt American automakers. The New York Times


U.S.

Why Biden's $7.5B electric vehicle charger push is probably Trump-proofed

Even though few chargers have come online so far, most of the funds will be formally committed to projects or available for states to spend by the time Trump takes office, which experts say will make them harder to claw back. POLITICO


Wisconsin

Electric vehicle owners in Wisconsin will have to pay a new tax at the charging station

Electric vehicle owners will soon have to pay a new tax when charging their cars, the Wisconsin Department of Revenue announced. Milwaukee Journal Sentinel


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Heavy-duty Vehicles

Nebraska

Nebraska accuses truck makers of conspiring to force transition to electric vehicles

In a consumer protection and antitrust suit filed Tuesday, Nebraska claims manufacturers agreed to restrict the production of diesel-powered semis in lockstep. Courthouse News Service


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Medium-duty Vehicles

North Carolina

Duke Energy's first-of-its-kind microgrid solution offers charging option for commercial vehicle fleets

Collaboration with Electrada provides resources for fleets considering electrification, specifically for interoperability, power flexibility and reliability. Duke Energy


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Shipping

International

Container shippers hedging green transition with dual-fuel vessel orders

Their order books, however, reflect uncertainty over which of a wide array of so-called green fuels will become the standard in the decades to come Reuters


International

Hydrogen From Biomass to Power Cargo Vessel in 40-Day Sea Trial

The global shipping industry accounts for 3% of greenhouse gas emissions, and all vessels must reduce their levels by 40% compared with 2008 levels by 2030. Fuel Cells Works


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Trains

International

CPKC launches two refuelling facilities in Canada for hydrogen locomotives

CPKC has ordered a total of 40 200kW fuel cells from Ballard which it has been using to retrofit locomotives in a bid to cut its emissions. H2 View


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Transportation Decarbonization

U.S.

Trump administration plans to roll back Biden's stricter fuel-efficiency standards

The move appears aimed at satisfying a campaign promise to "end the EV mandate," and would mirror a similar move during the first Trump administration to dismantle Obama-era vehicle-efficiency rules. Reuters


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